Efficacy of Chemical and Biological Stump Treatments for the Control of Heterobasidion occidentale Infection of California Abies concolor.

We conducted an experimental evaluation of treatments to limit Heterobasidion occidentale infection of white fir (Abies concolor) stumps and wounds in California mixed conifer forests. We tested the efficacy of urea, borate, and a mixture of two locally collected Phlebiopsis gigantea strains in preventing pathogen colonization of fir stumps and separately, urea and borate as infection controls on experimental stem wounds. These were paired with a laboratory test on ~100 g wood blocks with and without a one-week delay between inoculation and treatment. Urea, borates, and Phlebiopsis treatments all significantly reduced the stump surface area that was colonized by H. occidentale at 84%, 91%, and 68%, respectively, relative to the controls. However, only the borate treatments significantly lowered the number of stumps that were infected by the pathogen. The laboratory study matched the patterns that were found in the stump experiment with a reduced area of colonization for urea, borates, or P. gigantea treatments relative to the controls; delaying the treatment did not affect efficacy. The field wound experiment did not result in any Heterobasidion colonization, even in positive control treatments, rendering the experiment uninformative. Our study suggests treatments that are known to limit Heterobasidion establishment on pine or spruce stumps elsewhere in the world may also be effective on true firs in California.

Forecasting and control of emerging infectious forest disease through participatory modelling.

Epidemiological models are powerful tools for evaluating scenarios and visualizing patterns of disease spread, especially when comparing intervention strategies. However, the technical skill required to synthesize and operate computational models frequently renders them beyond the command of the stakeholders who are most impacted by the results. Participatory modelling (PM) strives to restructure the power relationship between modellers and the stakeholders who rely on model insights by involving these stakeholders directly in model development and application; yet, a systematic literature review indicates little adoption of these techniques in epidemiology, especially plant epidemiology. We investigate the potential for PM to integrate stakeholder and researcher knowledge, using Phytophthora ramorum and the resulting sudden oak death disease as a case study. Recent introduction of a novel strain (European 1 or EU1) in southwestern Oregon has prompted significant concern and presents an opportunity for coordinated management to minimize regional pathogen impacts. Using a PM framework, we worked with local stakeholders to develop an interactive forecasting tool for evaluating landscape-scale control strategies. We find that model co-development has great potential to empower stakeholders in the design, development and application of epidemiological models for disease control. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

Promise and Pitfalls of Endemic Resistance for Cultural Resources Threatened by Phytophthora ramorum.

Invasive forest pathogens can harm cultural, economic, and ecological resources. Here, we demonstrate the potential of endemic tree pathogen resistance in forest disease management using Phytophthora ramorum, cause of sudden oak death, in the context of management of tanoak (Notholithocarpus densiflorus), an ecologically unique and highly valued tree within Native American communities of northern California and southern Oregon in the United States. We surveyed resistance to P. ramorum on the Hoopa Valley Indian Reservation and Yurok Indian Reservation in a set of study sites with variable management intensities. Variation in resistance was found at all sites with similar mean and variation across stands, and resistance tended to have a random spatial distribution within stands but was not associated with previous stand management (thinning or prescribed fire) or structural characteristics such as tree density, basal area, or pairwise relatedness among study trees. These results did not suggest host, genetic, management, or environment interactions that could be easily leveraged into treatments to increase the prevalence of resistant trees. We applied epidemiological models to assess the potential application of endemic resistance in this system and to examine our assumption that in planta differences in lesion size-our measure of resistance-reflect linkages between mortality and transmission (resistance) versus reduced mortality with no change in transmission (tolerance). This assumption strongly influenced infection dynamics but changes in host populations-our conservation focus-was dependent on community-level variation in transmission. For P. ramorum, slowing mortality rates (whether by resistance or tolerance) conserves host resources when a second source of inoculum is present; these results are likely generalizable to pathogens with a broader host range. However, when the focal host is the sole source of inoculum, increasing tolerant individuals led to the greatest stand-level pathogen accumulation in our model. When seeking to use variation in mortality rates to affect conservation strategies, it is important to understand how these traits are linked with transmission because tolerance will be more useful for management in mixed-host stands that are already invaded, compared with single-host stands with low or no pathogen presence, where resistance will have the greatest conservation benefits.

A multi-species synthesis of physiological mechanisms in drought-induced tree mortality.

Widespread tree mortality associated with drought has been observed on all forested continents and global change is expected to exacerbate vegetation vulnerability. Forest mortality has implications for future biosphere-atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy balance, and is poorly represented in dynamic vegetation models. Reducing uncertainty requires improved mortality projections founded on robust physiological processes. However, the proposed mechanisms of drought-induced mortality, including hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, are unresolved. A growing number of empirical studies have investigated these mechanisms, but data have not been consistently analysed across species and biomes using a standardized physiological framework. Here, we show that xylem hydraulic failure was ubiquitous across multiple tree taxa at drought-induced mortality. All species assessed had 60% or higher loss of xylem hydraulic conductivity, consistent with proposed theoretical and modelled survival thresholds. We found diverse responses in non-structural carbohydrate reserves at mortality, indicating that evidence supporting carbon starvation was not universal. Reduced non-structural carbohydrates were more common for gymnosperms than angiosperms, associated with xylem hydraulic vulnerability, and may have a role in reducing hydraulic function. Our finding that hydraulic failure at drought-induced mortality was persistent across species indicates that substantial improvement in vegetation modelling can be achieved using thresholds in hydraulic function.

The emerging science of linked plant-fungal invasions.

Contents 1314 I. 1315 II. 1316 III. 1322 IV. 1323 V. 1325 VI. 1326 VII. 1326 VIII. 1327 1328 References 1328 SUMMARY: Invasions of alien plants are typically studied as invasions of individual species, yet interactions between plants and symbiotic fungi (mutualists and potential pathogens) affect plant survival, physiological traits, and reproduction and hence invasion success. Studies show that plant-fungal associations are frequently key drivers of plant invasion success and impact, but clear conceptual frameworks and integration across studies are needed to move beyond a series of case studies towards a more predictive understanding. Here, we consider linked plant-fungal invasions from the perspective of plant and fungal origin, simplified to the least complex representations or 'motifs'. By characterizing these interaction motifs, parallels in invasion processes between pathogen and mutualist fungi become clear, although the outcomes are often opposite in effect. These interaction motifs provide hypotheses for fungal-driven dynamics behind observed plant invasion trajectories. In some situations, the effects of plant-fungal interactions are inconsistent or negligible. Variability in when and where different interaction motifs matter may be driven by specificity in the plant-fungal interaction, the size of the effect of the symbiosis (negative to positive) on plants and the dependence (obligate to facultative) of the plant-fungal interaction. Linked plant-fungal invasions can transform communities and ecosystem function, with potential for persistent legacies preventing ecosystem restoration.

Wildfire and forest disease interaction lead to greater loss of soil nutrients and carbon.

Fire and forest disease have significant ecological impacts, but the interactions of these two disturbances are rarely studied. We measured soil C, N, Ca, P, and pH in forests of the Big Sur region of California impacted by the exotic pathogen Phytophthora ramorum, cause of sudden oak death, and the 2008 Basin wildfire complex. In Big Sur, overstory tree mortality following P. ramorum invasion has been extensive in redwood and mixed evergreen forests, where the pathogen kills true oaks and tanoak (Notholithocarpus densiflorus). Sampling was conducted across a full-factorial combination of disease/no disease and burned/unburned conditions in both forest types. Forest floor organic matter and associated nutrients were greater in unburned redwood compared to unburned mixed evergreen forests. Post-fire element pools were similar between forest types, but lower in burned-invaded compared to burned-uninvaded plots. We found evidence disease-generated fuels led to increased loss of forest floor C, N, Ca, and P. The same effects were associated with lower %C and higher PO4-P in the mineral soil. Fire-disease interactions were linear functions of pre-fire host mortality which was similar between the forest types. Our analysis suggests that these effects increased forest floor C loss by as much as 24.4 and 21.3 % in redwood and mixed evergreen forests, respectively, with similar maximum losses for the other forest floor elements. Accumulation of sudden oak death generated fuels has potential to increase fire-related loss of soil nutrients at the region-scale of this disease and similar patterns are likely in other forests, where fire and disease overlap.

Modeling when, where, and how to manage a forest epidemic, motivated by sudden oak death in California.

Sudden oak death, caused by Phytophthora ramorum, has killed millions of oak and tanoak in California since its first detection in 1995. Despite some localized small-scale management, there has been no large-scale attempt to slow the spread of the pathogen in California. Here we use a stochastic spatially explicit model parameterized using data on the spread of P. ramorum to investigate whether and how the epidemic can be controlled. We find that slowing the spread of P. ramorum is now not possible, and has been impossible for a number of years. However, despite extensive cryptic (i.e., presymptomatic) infection and frequent long-range transmission, effective exclusion of the pathogen from large parts of the state could, in principle, have been possible were it to have been started by 2002. This is the approximate date by which sufficient knowledge of P. ramorum epidemiology had accumulated for large-scale management to be realistic. The necessary expenditure would have been very large, but could have been greatly reduced by optimizing the radius within which infected sites are treated and careful selection of sites to treat. In particular, we find that a dynamic strategy treating sites on the epidemic wave front leads to optimal performance. We also find that "front loading" the budget, that is, treating very heavily at the start of the management program, would greatly improve control. Our work introduces a framework for quantifying the likelihood of success and risks of failure of management that can be applied to invading pests and pathogens threatening forests worldwide.

Management of invading pathogens should be informed by epidemiology rather than administrative boundaries.

Plant and animal disease outbreaks have significant ecological and economic impacts. The spatial extent of control is often informed solely by administrative geography - for example, quarantine of an entire county or state once an invading disease is detected - with little regard for pathogen epidemiology. We present a stochastic model for the spread of a plant pathogen that couples spread in the natural environment and transmission via the nursery trade, and use it to illustrate that control deployed according to administrative boundaries is almost always sub-optimal. We use sudden oak death (caused by Phytophthora ramorum) in mixed forests in California as motivation for our study, since the decision as to whether or not to deploy plant trade quarantine is currently undertaken on a county-by-county basis for that system. However, our key conclusion is applicable more generally: basing management of any disease entirely upon administrative borders does not balance the cost of control with the possible economic and ecological costs of further spread in the optimal fashion.

Mortality and community changes drive sudden oak death impacts on litterfall and soil nitrogen cycling.

Few studies have quantified pathogen impacts to ecosystem processes, despite the fact that pathogens cause or contribute to regional-scale tree mortality. We measured litterfall mass, litterfall chemistry, and soil nitrogen (N) cycling associated with multiple hosts along a gradient of mortality caused by Phytophthora ramorum, the cause of sudden oak death. In redwood forests, the epidemiological and ecological characteristics of the major overstory species determine disease patterns and the magnitude and nature of ecosystem change. Bay laurel (Umbellularia californica) has high litterfall N (0.992%), greater soil extractable NO3 -N, and transmits infection without suffering mortality. Tanoak (Notholithocarpus densiflorus) has moderate litterfall N (0.723%) and transmits infection while suffering extensive mortality that leads to higher extractable soil NO3 -N. Redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) has relatively low litterfall N (0.519%), does not suffer mortality or transmit the pathogen, but dominates forest biomass. The strongest impact of pathogen-caused mortality was the potential shift in species composition, which will alter litterfall chemistry, patterns and dynamics of litterfall mass, and increase soil NO3 -N availability. Patterns of P. ramorum spread and consequent mortality are closely associated with bay laurel abundances, suggesting this species will drive both disease emergence and subsequent ecosystem function.

Landscape epidemiology and control of pathogens with cryptic and long-distance dispersal: sudden oak death in northern Californian forests.

Exotic pathogens and pests threaten ecosystem service, biodiversity, and crop security globally. If an invasive agent can disperse asymptomatically over long distances, multiple spatial and temporal scales interplay, making identification of effective strategies to regulate, monitor, and control disease extremely difficult. The management of outbreaks is also challenged by limited data on the actual area infested and the dynamics of spatial spread, due to financial, technological, or social constraints. We examine principles of landscape epidemiology important in designing policy to prevent or slow invasion by such organisms, and use Phytophthora ramorum, the cause of sudden oak death, to illustrate how shortfalls in their understanding can render management applications inappropriate. This pathogen has invaded forests in coastal California, USA, and an isolated but fast-growing epidemic focus in northern California (Humboldt County) has the potential for extensive spread. The risk of spread is enhanced by the pathogen's generalist nature and survival. Additionally, the extent of cryptic infection is unknown due to limited surveying resources and access to private land. Here, we use an epidemiological model for transmission in heterogeneous landscapes and Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo inference to estimate dispersal and life-cycle parameters of P. ramorum and forecast the distribution of infection and speed of the epidemic front in Humboldt County. We assess the viability of management options for containing the pathogen's northern spread and local impacts. Implementing a stand-alone host-free "barrier" had limited efficacy due to long-distance dispersal, but combining curative with preventive treatments ahead of the front reduced local damage and contained spread. While the large size of this focus makes effective control expensive, early synchronous treatment in newly-identified disease foci should be more cost-effective. We show how the successful management of forest ecosystems depends on estimating the spatial scales of invasion and treatment of pathogens and pests with cryptic long-distance dispersal.

Apparent competition in canopy trees determined by pathogen transmission rather than susceptibility.

Epidemiological theory predicts that asymmetric transmission, susceptibility, and mortality within a community will drive pathogen and disease dynamics. These epidemiological asymmetries can result in apparent competition, where a highly infectious host reduces the abundance of less infectious or more susceptible members in a community via a shared pathogen. We show that the exotic pathogen Phytophthora ramorum and resulting disease, sudden oak death, cause apparent competition among canopy trees and that transmission differences among canopy trees drives patterns of disease severity in California coast redwood forests. P. ramorum ranges in its ability to infect, sporulate on, and cause mortality of infected hosts. A path analysis showed that the most prolific inoculum producer, California bay laurel (Umbellularia californica), had a greater impact on the mortality rate of tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus) than did other inoculum-supporting species. In stands experiencing high tanoak mortality, lack of negative impacts by P. ramorum on bay laurel may increase bay laurel density and subsequently result in positive feedback on pathogen populations. This study demonstrates the degree to which invasive, generalist pathogens can cause rapid changes in forest canopy composition and that differences in transmission can be more important than susceptibility in driving patterns of apparent competition.